2024 UK Premium Property Market Recap
Happy New Year (I can just about still say that as I write this on 15th January).
I hope everyone had a nice Christmas and enjoyed plenty of time off with loved ones before getting back into the swing of things.
I’ve heard from lots of people about getting the dreaded winter flu recently and it’s managed to knock me for six over the past few days, but did the 2024 premium market end the year under the weather or did it finish on a high?
I said in December for my last blog that I would be reviewing how the premium property market finished up in 2024 for my first blog this year.
Here are the key statistics from 2024:
The number of properties for sale on average throughout the year were 18.15% up on last year and 31.99% higher than the five-year average.
A higher volume of properties for sale across 2024 presented more choice for buyers and this was definitely a plus sign for the market following very low inventory throughout 2020-2023.
However, more properties to choose from has meant purchasers can be more picky and gives them extra room to negotiate on a purchase.
This has meant sellers need to be very competitive on their asking prices otherwise they will just make the more motivated sellers look better value for money.
New listings were 13.15% higher than 2023 and 23.93% up on the five-year average.
The number of new sellers entering the market was on the up and this was a clear sign that some form of confidence had returned to the market as it recovered from the difficulties of 2023.
Sales agreed increased by 16.36% compared to 2023 and were 8.35% up on the five-year average.
Further evidence of increased confidence could be found in the higher number of sales being agreed, so new found seller confidence was being matched with buyers also returning to the market fueled by lower interest rates and more choice.
There were 13.60% more price reductions than last year and 37.27% more than the five-year average.
The significant increase in price reductions highlights that there is very much still a gap between buyer and seller expectations as we continue to navigate this post Covid market of more properties for sale and higher interest rates.
Therefore, it is critical that estate agents have upfront and honest conversations with sellers on realistic pricing and I would particularly recommend using £ per sq ft data in a lot more detail if you’re not doing so already.
Please do reach out to me if you want to find out more about effectively using £ per sq ft data in the living room to win more listings at the right prices.
The number of properties withdrawing from the market were up 12.27% up on 2023 and 32.54% up on the five-year average.
As there has been a higher number of properties for sale this is going to mean there are more properties withdrawing from the market.
This presents both challenges and opportunities, but I’m going to highlight the potential that withdrawn properties will give you in 2025.
According to data from TwentyEA and Spectre, 46% of properties that withdraw from the market, will be back for sale within 12 months.
Make sure you stay in contact with any of your sellers that have withdrawn from the market in the past and be sure to also be targeting those that have withdrawn from other agents as well.
There are a variety of platforms that can help you target withdrawn properties and if you need any help with a strategy or content for this, please do feel free to contact me.
Fall-throughs saw a 9.86% increase in comparison to last year and a 10.65% increase compared to the five-year average.
The number of fall-throughs has risen as you would expect with more sales being agreed and transactions taking longer to go through.
I have seen clients of mine reduce their fall-through rate and the time it takes for a sale to complete by getting their sellers to instruct a solicitor at the start of marketing rather than just waiting for a sale to be agreed.
You should also check out Gazeal and OpenMoove if you’re looking to offer something different to stand out from the crowd and give your sellers more confidence in the moving process.
Properties relisting were up by 21.59% compared to 2023 and were 16.96% higher than the five-year average.
There has been a rise in the number of sellers who have unsuccessfully marketed their property previously coming back to market and this reiterates my point from earlier that those withdrawing from the market have a paused move rather than a stopped move and that itch still needs scratching.
I think this also shows that sellers who perhaps tried selling in late 2022 or throughout 2023 when market conditions were a lot more challenging now have the confidence to sell again due to lower interest rates and higher buyer demand.
As you will see from the above figures, there was an increase in every metric when comparing the 2024 figures to both 2023 and the five-year average of 2020 to 2024.
The increase in these metrics being measured has both positive and negative connotations for the premium property market, but overall, following a very difficult 2023, I think the premium market performed very well and exceeded expectations.
The level of new listings, properties relisting, and sales agreed at the higher end of the market all out performed the market as a whole when looking at the five-year average.
This highlights the growth in the premium market throughout 2024 and that as conditions have improved, the more discretionary and aspirational movers have been returning to the market.
What does this all mean going forward?
The latest completed transaction data from the land registry was recently released for November 2024.
There were 92,640 transactions and whilst this was unsurprisingly 8% lower than October due to the seasonal slowdown, they were 13% higher than the 82,030 transactions we saw completed in November 2023.
November figures were also 3.94% higher than the 12-month average and a positive sign that we are moving in the right direction and should expect an increase in transaction levels throughout 2025.
However, November completions were 6.22% lower than the 10-year average, so there is still a bit of work to do for transaction numbers to catch up, but I do think the positive mortgage approval data that is a future indicator of market activity is really showing encouraging signs for sales numbers going forward.
We must remember that completed transaction data is several months out of date and reports on sales that were potentially agreed when market conditions were very different to what they are right now.
Mortgage approval data will report on activity that is happening in the market right now and we know what the market conditions are at this present moment.
The latest mortgage approval for house purchases in November 2024 was 8.77% above the 12-month average and 31.14% higher than November last year.
These numbers are a great indicator for future activity and a really positive sign of things to come in the market now that people have adjusted to what are more normal conditions.
The public seem to have come to terms with the fact that the record low interest rates of 2009-2022 are behind us, have passed their peak of a year ago, and are looking more likely to eventually settle around 3-4%.
This is backed up by the fact that Rightmove reported in their December House Price Index that sales agreed were up 22% and new buyer demand was up by 13%, whilst Zoopla data highlighted that sales agreed were up 23% and buyer demand by 22%.
Rightmove also had a record breaking Bouncing Day with 2024 marking their busiest ever for both new property listings and traffic to the site as people prepare for their 2025 moves.
Their data shows a 26% increase in the number of new properties listed for sale compared to the previous record of 2023 and is further evidence of the confidence in the market for people to make a move in the year ahead.
18% of new listings were larger, top-of-the-ladder properties and this is a great sign of increased activity in a sector of the market that really struggled throughout 2023 with affordability due to higher interest rates.
The supply of new properties hitting the market on Boxing Day was matched with buyer demand as enquiries sent to estate agents about homes for sale was 20% higher than last year and was also the highest number of visits on Boxing Day in history, surpassing the previous record set in 2021 as buyers look to take advantage of the increased choice.
On another note, the latest inflation figures have just come out and surprisingly ended the year at 2.5% and this is actually what the average has been over the past 25 years believe it or not.
Therefore, if you look at all the metrics from number of properties for sale, new listings, sales agreed, house prices, transaction numbers, mortgage approvals, and inflation; the market appears to be in a pretty good place right now.
In conclusion, the market is not without its challenges right now, but withstanding any unforeseen black swan events, we look as though we are in line for a positive 2025 and lots of opportunity for estate agents to prosper.
Thank you for reading the first edition of the blog this year and stay tuned for the next edition in which I will be reviewing how 2025 has started for the premium property market.
Simon Gates - Opening The Gates
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