House Prices: Perception and Reality

We Are Unchained's recent analysis of a YouGov survey of over 40,000 people reveals what different groups expect in the months ahead. From the confident optimism of £750k+ homeowners to the cautious pragmatism of active home movers, the findings offer valuable insights into how perceptions shape expectations. For the prime property market, these insights are not just academic; they highlight the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in a sector that remains one of the most resilient corners of the housing market.

This data paints a fascinating picture of public sentiment surrounding house prices, particularly within the prime property market. It reveals a complex interplay of optimism, caution, and uncertainty, with marked differences between those in high-value homes, active home movers, and the general population.

Among those living in properties valued at £750,000 or more, confidence is remarkably high, with 50% expecting house prices to rise. This optimism far surpasses the broader national sentiment, where just 27% predict increases. This affluent demographic seems to view the prime property market as largely insulated from broader economic volatility. The combination of limited supply, high demand, and this group's relative financial resilience likely fuels this buoyant outlook.

In contrast, active home movers are notably more cautious than those planning to buy or sell a home this year. While 34% still anticipate rising prices, this is more measured optimism than that found among the £750k+ homeowners. For this group, the economic realities of higher interest rates and affordability challenges loom larger, introducing a degree of uncertainty that tempers their expectations.

Interestingly, pessimism about house prices is relatively muted across all groups. Just 16% of £750k+ homeowners, 10% of home movers, and 8% of the national population foresee prices falling. This suggests that, while caution exists, there is little expectation of a significant market downturn, even amidst the broader economic pressures.

However, what stands out most starkly is the level of ambivalence or uncertainty among respondents. A notable 20% of the general population admit to not knowing what to expect, with similar uncertainty reflected in the responses from other groups. This points to a degree of confusion or disengagement from the market, particularly among those not actively involved in transactions.

At the same time, a steady 21–24% across all groups predict no change in house prices. This highlights a prevailing sense of stability, particularly among those less directly exposed to the financial pressures of buying or selling.

These findings are revealing for the prime property market. The optimism among £750k+ homeowners reflects enduring confidence in the value and resilience of high-end homes, a sentiment that those marketing to this demographic can tap into. By contrast, the caution among home movers suggests that transactional activity in the broader housing market could slow, potentially influencing liquidity and demand indirectly in the prime sector.

Nonetheless, the limited expectation of price falls suggests that, even in uncertain times, the prime market remains a robust and attractive proposition. For agents, developers, and investors, the opportunity lies in leaning into this optimism, reinforcing the narrative of stability and long-term investment value that resonates with affluent buyers. Despite the broader economic headwinds, the prime property market looks set to weather the storm, buoyed by the confidence of those who call it home.

 

Simon Leadbetter, founder of Unchained.Marketing