Reasons to be cheerful for 2026’s premium market

So, in an effort to push back the January Blues, here we go:

On the 14^th of this month the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that UK inflation (currently at 3.2%), could fall to around 2% by April or May.

Steve Eakins from Lumon currency reports that markets are now almost fully pricing in two further 0.25% rate cuts this year. Lower inflation combined with falling interest rates normally helps create more confidence, mortgage activity and property transactions, as well as attracting more international clients to the UK.

And on that note, the year has started with a bang on the ‘international politics’ front. Venezuala, Greenland, and Iran have all made front page news and we are two weeks into the year, not withstanding the other international events that have gone, in relative terms, unreported. In a world increasingly uncertain and politically fragile as it is, I suspect the foreign interest in investing in UK property, and Sterling, will likely increase too.

The big problem last year faced wasn’t the contents of the budget itself (which did affect premium homes, but only in a very minor way compared to what was feared), but rather the months of speculation in the lead up to it.

Even more disheartening was that this was the second year running of this being the case, compounded by front page after front page during the typically busier months of the year for the premium market.

Rachel Reeves gave an interview to the Times which I found very encouraging, she said: ‘The budget had too much speculation. I want to say on the record how frustrated I am and have been by these incidents and the volume of speculation and leads, and that is why I am doing something about it, because we cannot allow this to happen again’

So… looks like, dare I say it, she gets it, and my prediction (prayer) is that this year we wont see months of doom and gloom in the press in the lead up to the Autumn Statement.

I mentioned this just now, but the so called Mansion Tax in the budget was, for owners of property of that calibre, pretty lightweight and staggered between price points (from £2,500pa for properties above £2m to £7,500pa for properties above £5m).

So not that much to worry about – and it is incredibly unpopular for politicians to go back to the same people asking for more in succession, so I suspect she will leave ‘Mansion Taxes’ off the table for some time to come.

But say I am wrong, and she does tax them more…is that really such a bad thing for our industry? If it encouraged, say, some empty nesters to sell their house and move on, surely that’s good for estate agents?

Purely anecdotal I admit – but this year seems to have started off busy! More buyers, sellers coming to market… it has a positive feel about it. Having written this, Rightmove subsequently released their House Price Index, reporting their largest ever recorded January house price jump.

Strutt and Parker, who are much better at their stats than I am so fair play, reported a 173% rise in the number of properties listed for sale between budget day and December compared with the same period the previous year. Im not sure if that’s their figures, or theyre measuring the whole market, but either way, good news.

So, a few reasons to be cheerful this cold and gloomy January! Hopefully, you’ve ‘felt’ this already in your market and are in no need whatsoever for this additional spring in your step.

And hopefully, we have lots more reasons to be cheerful this year too! Wishing you a very prosperous new year in your businesses.

Till next month!

David Lindley.